Do fund managers beat the market?
The answer might not be as straightforward as it seems. According to extensive research, a staggering 94% of active fund managers do not beat the market.
But even the best financial advisors are at the whim of the market. Most professional investors who try to beat the market actually underperform it over a given time period. And those who do manage to outperform the market over one time period can rarely outperform it again over the subsequent time period.
Index funds seek market-average returns, while active mutual funds try to outperform the market. Active mutual funds typically have higher fees than index funds. Index fund performance is relatively predictable; active mutual fund performance tends to be less so.
It's tough to trounce the stock market consistently, and last year was no different. Just 38% of large-cap active mutual funds outperformed their Russell benchmark in 2023, according to Bank of America. The average fund underperformed by 1.6 percentage points.
Less than 10% of active large-cap fund managers have outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 15 years. The biggest drag on investment returns is unavoidable, but you can minimize it if you're smart. Here's what to look for when choosing a simple investment that can beat the Wall Street pros.
As of Q2 2023, Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) shares were held by 70 of the 910 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey, valued at $4.6 billion. This makes Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) the most commonly owned stock by hedge funds on our list of 13 stocks that outperform the S&P 500 every year for the last 5 years.
Unsurprisingly, the majority do not beat those benchmarks, and even the ones who do don't keep their lead for long. Over its 23-year history, the SPIVA report shows that, on average, 64% of active large-cap fund managers fare worse than their benchmark (the S&P 500) in any given year.
The phrase "beating the market" means earning an investment return that exceeds the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Commonly called the S&P 500, it's one of the most popular benchmarks of the overall U.S. stock market performance. Everybody tries to beat it, but few succeed.
Of high-net-worth individuals, 70 percent work with a financial advisor.
Although it is very difficult, the market can be beaten. Every year, some managers boast better numbers than the market indices. A small fraction even manages to do so over a longer period. Over the horizon of the last 20 years, less than 10% of U.S. actively managed funds have beaten the market.
Why is it difficult for fund managers to beat the market?
There is at least a half-dozen reasons why this is the case. The massive size of funds that are actively managed by the industry's behemoths – Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, Blackrock and so on – means they cannot beat the market because they are the market.
From 2010 through 2021, anywhere from 55 percent to 87 percent of actively managed funds that invest in S&P 500 stocks couldn't beat that benchmark in any given year. Compared with that, the results for 2022 were cause for celebration: About 51 percent of large-cap stock funds failed to beat the S&P 500.
International developed stock fund managers were able to beat their respective indexes in four of the past 23 years, or 17.4% of the time. Meanwhile, emerging markets active fund managers fared even worse. They only managed to outperform in two years, or 8.7% of the time, during these 20-plus years.
Another driver of the underperformance of active funds, according to McDermott, is fees: “All funds have years where they underperform, however, the longer-term evidence is undeniable that active managers have continued to struggle. The main reason for this underperformance is because active funds charge higher fees.”
The average fund underperformed its benchmark by 1.75% per year before taxes and by 2.58% on an after-tax basis. Just 22% of funds managed to beat their benchmarks on a pretax basis. The average outperformance was 1.4%; the average underperformance was 2.6%. But on an after-tax basis, only 14% of funds outperformed.
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has regularly recommended an S&P 500 index fund. The S&P 500 has been a profitable investment over every rolling 20-year period in history.
According to a study by S&P Dow Jones Indices, only 24.2% of hedge fund managers were able to outperform the market in 2019. This means that the vast majority of hedge fund managers were not able to beat the market, despite their high fees and promises of superior returns.
Over its history, the S&P 500 has generated an average annual return of 9%, including re-invested dividends. At that rate, even a middle-class income is enough to become a millionaire over time.
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2014 would be worth $5,971.20, or a gain of 497.12%, as of February 5, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases. Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 178.17% and gold's return of 55.50% over the same time frame.
In 1980, had you invested a mere $1,000 in what went on to become the top-performing stock of S&P 500, then you would be sitting on a cool $1.2 million today.
Why is the S&P 500 not a good investment?
The S&P 500 weighting system gives a small number of companies major influence, which could have an undue negative effect on the index if one or a few of them run into trouble. The index does not expose investors to small or emerging companies with the potential for market-beating growth.
In the trailing five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year periods, the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG 0.98%) has outperformed the S&P 500. That is a remarkable track record.
Ticker | Name | 5-year return (%) |
---|---|---|
PBFDX | Payson Total Return | 16.73% |
FGRTX | Fidelity Mega Cap Stock | 16.52% |
STSEX | BlackRock Exchange BlackRock | 16.27% |
USBOX | Pear Tree Quality Ordinary | 16.13% |
Active managers' underperformance in 2023 is still better than the 64% average annual rate reported over the 23-year history of the SPIVA scorecards, said the report, which was released Wednesday. Over the past 15 years, 88% of large-cap stock funds underperformed the S&P 500, while 93% of funds did so over 20 years.
So, if you had invested in Netflix ten years ago, you're likely feeling pretty good about your investment today. A $1000 investment made in March 2014 would be worth $9,728.72, or a gain of 872.87%, as of March 4, 2024, according to our calculations. This return excludes dividends but includes price appreciation.
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