D-Backs' Pfaadt to struggle vs. powerhouse Dodgers (2024)

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We have a massive slate of games Tuesday night as all 30 teams are set to take the diamond.

Let's waste no time getting to a handful of my favorite plays.

Tigers (-110) @ Royals (-110)

These two teams combined for 11 runs in the series opener. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair in Game 2.

The Tigers (3.9 runs allowed per game) and Royals (3.4 allowed per game) are both top-10 in run prevention this season.

Although Casey Mize and Alec Marsh hardly make up a marquee pitching matchup on paper, they're both throwing the ball well and are capable of slowing down opposing offenses.

Mize has conceded two runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts, including against these same Royals. The only blip on the radar came against a 33-16 Yankees team averaging nearly five runs per game.

On the flip side, Marsh has quietly responded well following a slow start to the year. He's allowed just two earned runs over his past four starts, which feature games against (likely) playoff-bound teams like the Orioles and Mariners.

It's important to note that their underlying metrics of late suggest their success in preventing runs isn't a fluke.

Mize owns a .293 xwOBA, and his ground-ball rate is nearly 10% above the league average over the last month.

Meanwhile, Marsh sits third among the day's projected starters in strike rate during that same period. He's throwing a ton of strikes and getting ahead in counts, which allows him to take batters out of their comfort zone and force them to swing at pitchers' pitches.

I expect both arms to put forth five or six quality innings, positioning this game nicely to go under the total.

Bet: Under 8.5 (+110)

Adrian Houser: Over 1.5 walks

Houser has struggled immensely with control all season long. He's issued at least two walks in seven of eight starts thus far, averaging 2.9 per game.

He owns a putrid 14% walk rate, which jumps to nearly 17% against left-handed batters. They've given him a ton of problems.

It just so happens the Guardians are loaded with lefties. They're projected to start six or seven left-handed bats, not to mention the switch-hitting José Ramírez. Their lineup is perfectly built to capitalize on Houser's control issues.

Although the Guardians generally don't walk a ton, they sit in the middle of the pack this month in walk rate against right-handed pitchers. They're trending upward heading into this mouth-watering matchup against Houser.

Odds: +100 (playable to -125)

Robert Gasser: Over 15.5 outs

Brewers starter Joe Ross left Monday's game against the Marlins after just one inning. This led to as taxing a bullpen performance as you'll see.

The Brewers had to use seven relievers in what turned into a 10-inning game. All but one of them threw more than 10 pitches, and the exception (Mitch White) tossed over 40 the day prior.

They completely nuked their bullpen while scrambling to try to piece together a result after Ross' departure.

Suffice to say, the Brewers are desperate for length from Gasser in this game. He's in a great matchup to give it to them.

The Marlins are hitting just .220 against left-handed pitchers in May. They also own a low walk rate of just 5%, so they're struggling to get on base in every way imaginable.

The Marlins are a bad offense, and Gasser has an exhausted bullpen behind him. The Brewers will give him every chance to mow down as many batters as he can, and, based on the numbers, he shouldn't have much difficulty doing just that.

Odds: +105 (playable to -130)

Brandon Pfaadt: Under 17.5 outs

Pfaadt has cleared this line in four straight starts and six of his last seven overall. I think the Dodgers are going to buck that trend Tuesday night.

They're a miserable team for opposing pitchers to deal with. They've earned multiple walks off 13 of the past 15 right-handed starters they've faced. Put another way, they're very patient at the plate and doing a great job of grinding out walks while working up pitch counts.

The Dodgers are one of the leaders in batting average, they hit for power, and no team walks more against right-handed pitchers. There's no weak point or easy way to attack them.

Pfaadt faced the Dodgers twice in the regular season last year. He allowed nine runs while failing to complete even five innings in either start.

Although he's better - and more polished - now than a season ago, expecting him to pitch six innings against this offense is an awful lot to ask.

The Diamondbacks can afford to be careful with Pfaadt and get him out at any sign of real trouble as well. They have five relievers who've pitched only once in the past five days, so their bullpen is as rested as one could possibly hope for. That could lead to an earlier departure for Pfaadt.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

D-Backs' Pfaadt to struggle vs. powerhouse Dodgers (2024)
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