The 2024 Tour de France begins in Florence, Italy, this Saturday, and rather than turn to AI for some pre-race predictions (as we did last year), this year, we’re asking the members of our Racing News team about what they expect. They agree on a lot–which isn’t surprising given how smart we think they are (okay, we’re obviously biased). But they also seem to be rather fond of bleached hair, dachshund dogs, and a certain British sprinter who they’re all hoping will take a record-breaking stage win in this year’s Tour.
Here’s what we asked them—and what they said:
What TDF storyline are you most excited about this year?
Michael Venutolo-Mantovani: Call me a homer but I can’t wait to see how the U.S. Americans fare at the Tour. U.S. cycling has been trending up in a major way over the last several months, and it feels like the pot is just about ready to boil over. And what bigger stage to do that than the Tour de France?
Also, if your heart isn’t already racing at the idea of Great Britain’s Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan) breaking his tie with Eddy Merckx for the most stage wins in Tour history, you should see a doctor.
Finally, I'll be anxiously watching Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), as I would love to watch him become the first Black man to win a Tour de France stage.
Micah Ling: I’m a big ol’ sap for Cav. I’ve always been a fan, but I met him last year when I was reporting in France, and he’s just the absolute nicest guy–so, so kind and generous. I want nothing more than to see him get number 35.
Molly Hurford: I’m obsessed with Mark Cavendish getting the stage win he needs to surpass Merckx. I’m also obsessed with whether or not Tom Pidco*ck’s (INEOS Grenadiers) dachshunds will be there to join him on the podium like they did at last week’s MTB World Cup race. Fingers crossed.
Whit Yost: I’m all-in on #CavWatch2024, and I’ll be a weepy mess if he breaks the record. I’m also eager to see if Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) is really going to be competitive after his crash at the Tour of the Basque Country in early April. He broke his collarbone, some ribs, and punctured a lung–how can he possibly be ready to try and defend his Tour de France titles from 2022 and 2023?
I think Vingegaard will be surprisingly competitive. He’s already proven himself to be the best grand tour rider in the sport—yes, even better than Pogačar.
Who or what will be the biggest surprise of the 2024 TDF?
MVM: Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) is going to win multiple stages at this year’s Tour. The punchy Irishman has been a part of so many breakaways over the last two seasons, displaying a type of courage that has become somewhat of a trademark. It’s time for a few of those gutsy moves to finally stick.
ML: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) will each win a stage–and then both will bleach their hair before trying for a second one. But Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) will crush them both in their final stage win attempts–and then will have to bleach his own hair for the Tour’s final stage in Nice.
MH: If anyone other than Pogačar manages to be in the yellow jersey after the first week of racing.
WY: I guess I’m going to answer my own question here, but I think Vingegaard will be surprisingly competitive. He’s already proven himself to be the best grand tour rider in the sport–yes, even better than Pogačar. And while Pogačar is heading into this year’s race healthier and fitter than the Dane, I still think the two-time defending champ will do enough to challenge for a spot on the podium in Nice.
Who or what will be the biggest disappointment of the 2024 TDF?
MVM: I don’t think Vingegaard will be much of a factor in this year’s Tour. Watching him and Tadej go head-to-head over the last few years has been thrilling, and heading into this season, the idea of a three-peat was amazing. (Those have been arguably the best Tour de France storylines since the Lance Armstrong era.)
But given the injuries the Visma-Lease a Bike superstar suffered in that horrific crash at the Tour of the Basque Country, I can’t imagine he’s got the form he needs to conquer one of the hardest races on Earth. (Of course, I didn't think he was much of a time trialist before last year's masterclass, so here's hoping he again proves me wrong.)
ML: I’m with Michael: my gut says that Jonas will not be ready and might not even finish the Tour. I would personally not be surprised by a less-than-impressive showing from the Dane.
MH: I’ll be disappointed if Pogačar gets another huge gap–like he did early on at the Giro–then cruises to an easy win. I'd like to see the yellow jersey go back and forth a couple of times before a winner is crowned.
WY: I don’t like it when crashes prevent fans from seeing the sport’s best racers competing in top form in the sport’s best races. So, in one way–thanks to the fact that Vingegaard is starting the race with so many question marks about his fitness–it’s already been a disappointing Tour de France because we were robbed of a chance to see the sport’s four best grand-tour riders competing head-to-head in the sport’s biggest three-week stage race. But I digress.
No one’s mentioned Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step), the rider who–at the 2022 Vuelta a España–won Belgium its first grand tour since 1978. Now he’s trying to win the nation its first Tour de France since 1976, thereby ending a really long drought, considering Belgium is the country that gave us Eddy Merckx.
Well, I hate to say it, but I don’t see Evenepoel as a serious challenger in this year’s Tour de France. I think he’ll be up there for a week or so–he’ll maybe even wear the yellow jersey for a day or two after the Tour’s first individual time trial on Stage 7. But he’ll fade once the race hits the Pyrenees at the end of the second week, partially due to the competition, partially due to the course, and largely due to the immense pressure heaped on him by the Belgian press and fans.
Who will be the best Frenchman of the 2024 Tour de France?
MVM: With Thibault Pinot enjoying retirement, the hearts of the French are there for the taking. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if there's a clear-cut hero waiting in the wings (at least not a new name; more on that in a moment).
For all of his talent and hype, David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) has been something of a letdown. And while Romain Bardet (dsm-firmeninch-PostNL) has enjoyed some success this year—second at Liége-Bastogne-Liége and ninth at the Giro—I don't know that his team has enough firepower to help deliver him to his first Tour de France stage win since 2017.
So I'll say Christophe Laporte (Visma-Lease a Bike), who started off the year strong with top-5 finishes at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. He then got sick and DNF’d at Milan-Sanremo and abandoned the Giro d'Italia. But he’s healthy now, and the uncertainty surrounding his injury-riddled team might give him a few opportunities to step into a bigger role during the race.
ML: As Michael said, there isn’t a lot to give French fans a lot of hope this year, but maybe Gaudu–who finished fourth overall in 2022–will have a good race. He just tested positive for COVID-19, but he’s on track to recover in time.
MH: Laporte–especially considering how subdued the Visma-Lease a Bike team will be with Vingegaard and van Aert potentially still in recovery mode.
WY: Ugh, it’s really not a great time to be a French fan. But a 20-year-old climber named Lenny Martínez could change that. The son of legendary French mountain biker Miguel Martínez, Lenny is the purest of pure climbers: last year, he won a race that finished atop Mont Ventoux and then almost scored a stage win on a summit finish at the Vuelta a España. Currently riding for Groupama-FDJ, he’s rumored to be heading to UAE Team Emirates when his contract expires at the end of the season, and I could easily see this year’s Tour becoming a coming-out party for the talented young Frenchman.
Who will be the best North American of the 2024 Tour de France?
MVM: Visma-Lease a Bike’s Matteo Jorgenson is going to have a breakout Tour de France. It started last year with an attack up the Puy de Dôme that, though it didn’t result in a win, captured the hearts and minds of cycling fans around the world. Since then, Jorgenson has won Paris-Nice and Dwars door Vlaanderen and finished second at the all-important Critérium du Dauphiné. And with a GC captain (Vingegaard) who is coming into the race off a major injury, there's a big chance someone will have to step into the role of team leader should Vingegaard falter.
ML: I agree with Michael about Jorgenson. I’m also expecting Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) to have a great Tour this year. He’s had a quiet season so far, but he’s due for a rebound at the Tour.
MH: Derek Gee. I have high hopes for the young Canadian after he won a stage and finished third overall at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Considering how well he did at the Giro last year–and now fully recovered from his early season injury–I think he’s coming into the race a bit fresher than most of the other top contenders. I have high hopes!
WY: Well, with only six North Americans slated to ride this year’s Tour, there aren’t many riders to choose from. I’m definitely excited to see if Jorgenson–who took his racing to another level or two after moving to Visma-Lease a Bike during the off-season–can develop into a true grand tour contender. I’m also eager to see Powless finally win a stage (hopefully, he doesn’t waste stupid energy trying to win the Tour’s King of the Mountains competition like last year.)
As for Gee, Molly will like this one. He’s my pick to win Stage 1 in Rimini and take the first yellow jersey of the Tour.
Which riders will win the green, polka dot, and white jerseys?
MVM: It’s easy to pick Belgium’s Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck–who won the green jersey last year–to win another one, given his six-stage wins in the last two Tours de France. But I'm going with Denmark’s Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), who will earn points across a wider array of terrain–not just on the flat sprint finishes that Philipsen is so adept at winning.
Even if it costs him a stage win, I’m rooting for Powless to take home the polka dot jersey as the Tour’s King of the Mountains–if only to justify me shouting in his face during last year’s Tour that he was indeed the “King of the F*cking Mountains!"
We haven’t mentioned him yet, but Spain’s Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers) will win the white jersey as the Tour’s Best Young Rider because–well, more on that in a minute…
ML: I see no reason to upset the applecart: Philipsen will win green for the second year in a row; Pogačar will be the Tour’s King of the Mountains; and Rodríguez will take home the white jersey–mainly because Pogačar is now too old to qualify.
MH: I guess great minds think alike? I agree with Michael about Pedersen winning green–and Molly about Pog winning the polka dot jersey. But the white jersey won’t go to Rodríguez–it will go to his teammate, Pidco*ck.
WY: While I agree that Pedersen is the only rider capable of beating Philipsen in the Tour’s green jersey competition, I don’t think he really cares about it. He’s rather a stage or two than battle every day for green jersey points. As for the polka dot jersey, if Pog does Pog things, he’ll win the jersey.
And I’m excited about the fact that Pogačar no longer qualifies for the Best Young Rider competition–because maybe it will now be interesting once again. I could see a battle emerging between Rodríguez, Evenepoel, and another Spaniard named Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates)–with Rodríguez outlasting the other two and winning the white jersey.
Which riders will finish second and third overall?
MVM: Rodríguez–who finished fifth overall last year–will start to make serious headway once the race hits the big mountains in week two, finishing second overall. It’s crazy that we haven’t mentioned him yet, but Slovenia’s Primož Roglič (BORA-hansgrohe) will round out the podium, once again falling short of the yellow jersey.
ML: Not to spill the beans as to who I think will win the Tour, but I’m expecting a repeat of the result from 2020, with Roglič finishing second overall. Rodríguez will finish third, with his compatriot Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious) coming in a close fourth.
MH: I’m rooting for Pidco*ck (because I love his dachshunds and would like them to get more airtime) and for Gee (because he's Canadian and—true story—his fiancée’s mom is the only person other than myself and my husband that my dachshund has instantly loved). But seriously, I think both will do really well, and not just for dachshund-related reasons.
WY: I really tend to overthink things like this, mainly because I can see multiple scenarios in which any number of riders could finish on the final podium. My gut says Roglič is good enough to land on the podium–but not good enough to win. Rodríguez will be close, but in the end, I’m trusting Visma-Lease a Bike to have done enough to get Vingegaard ready enough to finish third.
Which rider will win the 2024 Tour de France?
MVM: Pogačar. Sure, he’s coming off the Giro, which most people consider a more difficult race than the Tour, and his legs are probably less than ideal. But there’s a strong case to be made that the Slovenian is not actually human. To make matters worse–or easier–the only person who’s shown he can consistently beat him–Vingegaard–won't be 100 percent for the race. And even if he is, Vinegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike team has been in shambles this entire season.
This is Tadej’s race to lose. And remember: even though we all knew Pogačar was going to win the Giro before the race even started, it didn’t make it any less thrilling to watch.
ML: Michael laid it out pretty clearly: Tadej Pogačar will win the 2024 Tour de France.
MH: Is there really any question? I want to say anyone other than Pogačar, but I’d be lying.
WY: I think Michael actually understates how good Pogačar is at the moment. He raced an impeccable Giro and was never challenged at any point throughout the Italian grand tour–by neither the riders nor the terrain. I think he actually finished the race stronger than he was when he started it. As if that weren’t enough, he has probably the strongest team the Tour has seen in decades, with three teammates in Great Britain’s Adam Yates, Portugal’s João Almeida, and Spain’s Juan Ayuso capable of scoring podium finishes of their own. As Michael said, this is Pog’s Tour to lose.
